The agency said Macau’s robust fiscal reserves and lack of government debt underpin its credit strength, but warned that the economy remains highly dependent on gaming tourism from mainland China.
Fitch expects gross domestic product growth to ease to 4.0 percent in 2026 from 4.7 percent last year, with gaming revenue recovering to nearly 89 percent of pre-pandemic levels. The mass-market segment, particularly premium mass players, is forecast to remain resilient, supported by record visitation from China and favorable entry policies.
Despite diversification efforts, gaming still accounted for more than 40 percent of economic output in 2024. Fitch noted that human capital constraints and limited hotel and air capacity will slow expansion into non-gaming sectors.
Macau’s fiscal position remains strong, with a projected budget surplus of 5 percent of GDP in 2026, compared with a median deficit of 2 percent among “AA” peers. Fiscal reserves rose to MOP663 billion (69.1 billion euros) by late 2025, equal to 159 percent of GDP, while foreign exchange reserves climbed to USD30.6 billion (25.7 billion euros).
The banking sector continues to face stress from property exposures, with mortgage delinquency at a record 4.6 percent in November, though capital buffers remain adequate. Fitch highlighted Macao’s governance strengths, citing high scores in rule of law and institutional quality, which support the territory’s sovereign rating.
