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Angola oil production forecast to rise to 1.14M bpd in 2026 – consultants

London-based consultancy firm, Oxford Economics forecasts that oil production in Angola will grow this year to 1.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 6.5% compared to the average daily production of 1.07 million barrels in 2025.

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“We expect oil production to grow by 6.5% to 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026, supported by the start-up of projects in the third quarter of last year, which will only reach full capacity during the first half of this year,” reads a commentary on December oil production.

Angola’s economy “is not diversified and is heavily dependent on oil exports, which account for almost 20% of GDP and 50% of state revenue in 2024,” analysts point out in the note sent to clients, stressing that “without viable alternatives to oil exports, the country has little choice but to continue production, even if global economic developments lead to lower export revenues.”

Angola produced 31,863,172 barrels of crude oil in December 2025, equivalent to a daily average of 1,027,844 barrels, according to the monthly summary of the National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG), released last week. According to the document, average daily production was below the forecast for the month, set at 1,080,238 barrels per day.

In December, the country exported 35,258,138 barrels of oil, corresponding to a daily average of 1,137,359 barrels, above the monthly forecast of 1,108,226 barrels per day. Compared to November 2025, when average daily production stood at 1,060,660 barrels, December’s figures reflect a monthly reduction in production, but still remain above one million barrels per day.

In year-on-year terms, December 2025 production was slightly above that recorded in December 2024, when Angola produced 31,763,054 barrels, with a daily average of 1,024,615 barrels, according to ANPG historical data.

Angola earned US$24.4 billion (€20.7 billion) from oil exports in 2025, a 22.16% reduction compared to 2024, having sold around 357.10 million barrels of crude oil, the government announced. According to the Secretary of State for Oil and Gas, José Barroso, Angolan crude oil was traded last year at an average price of $68.4 per barrel, a decrease of 14.19% compared to 2024.

The data presented show that there was a 9.28% decrease in export volume compared to 2024, when Angola exported 396.6 million barrels of crude oil. José Barroso, who presented the oil production results for the fourth quarter of 2025, also said that China, India and Indonesia were the main destinations for Angolan oil exports last year, with 58.57%, 11% and 8.28%, respectively.

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