According to a study conducted by Griffith University (Australia) and the Shanghai Center for Green Finance and Development, the figure represents a 75% increase from the $122.6 billion (€105 billion) recorded in 2024, with 350 new agreements signed under the initiative, compared to 293 the previous year.
This growth comes amid growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, including trade and technology disputes and US military interventions, which have shaken global energy markets.
According to Christoph Nedopil Wang, an expert in Chinese energy and finance at Griffith University and author of the study, China’s investment in the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to continue to grow in 2026, especially in the energy, mining, and new technology sectors.
“The volatility of global trade and investment could drive more Chinese investment aimed at supply chain resilience and the conquest of new export markets,” the researcher said, quoted by the Financial Times (FT).
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Launched in 2013 by President of China Xi Jinping, a few months after coming to power, the initiative is the cornerstone of Chinese foreign policy and aims to deepen Beijing’s economic influence in developing countries. Currently, 150 countries are partners in the initiative, which has made China the world’s largest bilateral creditor.
The report reveals that, since its launch, cumulative investments and contracts under the initiative have exceeded 1.4 trillion dollars (USD) (1.2 trillion euros (EUR)).
Among the main projects for 2025 are multi-billion-dollar megaprojects, such as a gas complex in the Republic of Congo led by Southernpec, the Ogidigben Gas Revolution Industrial Park in Nigeria, run by China National Chemical Engineering, and a petrochemical plant in North Kalimantan, Indonesia, developed by a consortium of Chinese companies Tongkun Group and Xinfengming Group.
“We have never seen this kind of megaproject before,” said Nedopil Wang, also quoted by the FT. “There is growing confidence on the part of developing countries in the ability of Chinese companies to lead large ventures,” he noted.
The energy sector recorded the highest volume of contracts, with 93.9 billion USD (80.8 billion EUR), the highest figure since the initiative was launched, including 18 billion USD (15.4 billion EUR) in wind, solar, and waste-to-energy projects.
The mining and metals sector also broke records, reaching 32.6 billion USD (28 billion EUR), with a notable increase in investment in mineral refining outside China, ensuring prolonged access to strategic resources such as copper, for which demand has skyrocketed due to the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence.
However, experts cited in the study warn of the risks of partner countries’ growing dependence on Chinese credit. A report by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS), published in 2024, warned of problems such as unsustainable debt levels, lack of transparency in credit terms, and investment in strategic sectors with possible military use.
