Trump sees tariffs as the most eloquent expression of American power. The current form of the trade war proposes the end of globalization, and only the American President can reverse this path.
The escalation of tensions we’ve witnessed seemed random and reckless, especially for the U.S. economy. However, by opening the doors of renegotiation to the entire planet—except China—the final goal becomes clear. For Beijing, he reserved the confinement of hostility, with tariffs reaching 245%. It is a premeditated siege, perhaps less severe had China not retaliated against the previous 145% with its own 125% tariffs. Still, it sends a strong signal to others about what they can expect if they don’t fall in line with Trump.
China, faithful to its millennia-old art of strategic patience, tried to position itself as a guarantor of globalization, but the current context also forced it to send a message to the rest of the world—those who side with Washington, side against us. And in this dance of threats and retaliation, the music already transcends the main players.
Trump wants a new world order to orbit around Washington’s gravitational axis, subjecting value chains to the logic of force and allies to the logic of submission. If that gravitational pull is not strong enough for some, Trump presents only one option: you’re with us, or you’re with us. Those who are not, will be crushed, as the tariffs now on the negotiating table will be nothing compared to those yet to come.
What is unsettling is not just the confrontation itself. It’s what grows within it: an international environment where cooperation fades and countries are pushed into choices they don’t want to make. The Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Africa—entire regions are being coerced into choosing between two empires, just as they were beginning to find a bilateral balance.
*The Economist* paints a troubling picture in its most recent analysis: structural inflation, investment paralysis, erosion of trust—symptoms of a system losing its center of gravity. It is hard to survive the collapse of certainty, even more so when multilateral institutions have been reduced to impotent observers.
This is where the real danger lies. The choice between one side and the other is no longer ideological or economic. It is now dictated by fear—not of what is gained by aligning with one, but of what is lost by being excluded by the other. A moral inversion that turns partners into hostages and crystallizes a world of sealed-off blocs, capable only of talking amongst themselves. Cooperation is increasingly seen as an act of self-defense and survival. Even if the countries now negotiating with the United States wish to forge agreements that do not antagonize Beijing—preserving a fragile sense of globalization—it all depends on whether Trump is willing to allow it. But the America First policy is not indifferent to who comes second; quite the opposite.
*Executive Director of Plataforma.
