The meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden surprised many people. But more than desirable, it was inevitable. The United States and China are – and will be – adversaries, from an ideological and geostrategic point of view. But both finally realize that dialogue is the only way to mitigate the risks of a clash far more dramatic than the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. And there is a unique circumstance at this point: Xi and Biden, for different reasons, realize that peace today is essential not only for the economy, but for their own political destinies.
China is facing a huge economic crisis, aggravated by three years of Covid-zero policies and the demonization of China in the United States and Europe. Meanwhile, within the Communist Party itself, tensions have erupted over the policies pursued in recent years, and there is growing consensus that a path of affirmation based on domestic consumption is not possible. In other words, Xi’s very power today is linked to his ability to lead solutions, but also to regain face around the world.
The United States, trapped between two regional wars, is also facing serious economic, social, and political problems. And Biden is facing the specter of Trump, who polls suggest is likely to win the next elections. In other words, he too needs a turnaround that will allow him to keep the Democrats in power and the image of the United States as the keeper of the values of liberal democracy.
The four lines of force in a first agreement include the fight against drug trafficking, direct dialogue between military hierarchies, artificial intelligence, and climate change. But they don’t seem to be enough for the coup d’état they are both pursuing. What would eternalize them, internally and externally, would be their ability to pull the strings towards world peace. If they agree on this, we will certainly be closer to solutions for Ukraine and the Middle East; but also to lowering tensions in Taiwan and the South China Sea. It hasn’t been made public, but this may well be the horizon that unites them. The most difficult to achieve, but the one that would make the world surrender to both.
