This Sunday, the country entered the final stretch of the electoral campaign, an electrifying duel between rivals Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which, according to polls, can be defined in the first round, on October 2, in favor of the ex-president
“What we have to do is talk to millions of people who are undecided or thinking about abstaining,” Lula said this Sunday in Rio de Janeiro, during an act that was attended by thousands of supporters on the court of the Portela samba school.
According to the most recent Datafolha poll, Lula has 47% of voting intentions, compared to 33% for Bolsonaro, and can win in the first round if he gets more than 50% of valid votes (discounting nulls or blanks).
“Polls say that there is a real possibility that Lula will win in the first round”, points out Fernanda Magnotta, coordinator of International Relations at Faap, in São Paulo.
The former union leader, who left the presidency with an approval rating above 80% and returned to the political arena after a period in prison and with his image tarnished by the Lava Jato corruption scandal, could benefit from the “useful vote” coming from voters of less competitive candidates, such as Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet (5%).
In recent days, Lula has gained support such as the implicit support of former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso and his former Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva. Latin American politicians and intellectuals asked Ciro Gomes in an open letter to withdraw from the dispute, to facilitate Lula’s victory.
In addition to the “useful vote”, Lula is focused on fighting abstention, which was around 20% in 2018. “His government was very good, I trained my children, I conquered material things, like a car. I want him to come back, so that he can be like before,” Sandra Chaves, a 60-year-old black voter, told AFP this Sunday during the rally in Rio de Janeiro.
Bolsonaro is supported by influential sectors, such as the evangelical, business and agricultural sectors, but he faces resistance from the female electorate and the poorest, who prefer Lula, despite the monthly aid of 600 reais distributed since August by the current government.
The president claims that the polls, which show him at a disadvantage, even in an eventual second round, lie. “God willing, we will win in the first round,” Bolsonaro insisted today, during a live broadcast on social media. “How can the other candidate, who the press says can win the first round, not go to the street?”, he asked. Will you win in the first round? I think it’s hard. Not difficult, impossible. And period.”
Bolsonaro is preparing for the last week motorcycle riders across the Southeast region, which concentrates more than 42% of the country’s voters.
Polarization
In what is considered the most polarized election in decades, 67.5% of Brazilians fear being attacked for political reasons, according to a survey by Datafolha and the Brazilian Forum on Public Security (FBSP) published in September. “This week that remains, I would like you not to accept provocation”, asked Lula in Rio.
In addition to the campaign events, another important milestone towards Sunday will be the last electoral debate, which will take place next Thursday, on TV Globo, in which Lula confirmed his presence, after missing yesterday’s debate alleging scheduling problems.
