Mozambique expected to register a 2% GDP growth

Oxford Economics Africa consultants will revise the Mozambique economic growth forecast to around 2% due to the 3.3% expansion in the third quarter, the highest recorded since the pandemic

“After a slow start to the year, the economy gained traction in the second half of 2021, and the third quarter turned out to be the strongest in terms of GDP growth since the second quarter of 2019,” the analysts write in a commentary on gross domestic product (GDP) figures, which reported growth of 3.36% from July to September this year.

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The Oxford Economics Africa analysts point out that “accelerating production at Vale’s Moatize mine, underpinned by an improvement in exports of other commodities, and the reduction of Covid-19 lockdown measures have breathed life into the economy”.

“The latest GDP figures will lead us to increase our growth forecast of 1.8% in the next revision of estimates. We still foresee the economy accelerating to over 2.5% in 2022, in a context of increased exports of raw materials, sustained by the start of natural gas production in the Rovuma basin, in Eni’s project,” they added.

Mozambique’s GDP grew 3.36% in the third quarter, accelerating the upward trend recorded since January, the National Statistics Institute (INE) announced.

“Gross domestic product at market prices showed a positive variation of 3.36% in the third quarter of 2021 when compared to the same period of 2020, making an accumulated growth of 1.78%,” the note on the quarterly national accounts said.

The figures leave GDP 32 basis points away from the target set by this year’s budget (2.1%) and reinforce the sign of recovery in the face of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The performance of economic activity in the third quarter of 2021 is attributed primarily to the primary sector which grew by 4.78%,” driven mainly by mining with a jump of 5.01%, INE noted.