As of October 16, China’s leadership for the next five years is known, in what is the country’s biggest political event. The 20th. National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party could mark a “drastic” change in the constitution of the country’s highest political decision-making body, the Politburo. Sonny Lo, a political scientist, believes this is the most likely scenario, in order to prepare the “younger” to succeed those who currently lead.
The 20th. National Congress has been profiled as the most important in the last 40 years. Sonny Lo indicates that, if on the one hand it marks the centenary of the CPC National Congress, it also outlines “the new generation of leaders” in the country, although in this matter there is “no clear picture” of what to expect.
Some prospects are more solid, as is the case of Xi Jinping’s third term as Party Secretary General, maintaining the “trinity” of political power, also continuing to accumulate the positions of President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairman of the Commission. Central Military.
The amendment to the Constitution is also practically a given, removing the limits on the term of the presidency, as well as the inscription of the Chinese leader’s political ideology, entitled “Thought of Xi Jinping”. On the other hand, “the main messages of the Government that is starting are pointed out, as occurred in the 19th. Congress, when Xi first introduced the New Age. And at the 12th Congress, when Deng Xiaoping announced socialism with Chinese characteristics”, highlights Renato Peneluppi, a member of the Working Group “Dialogues Brazil-China”, of the Lula Institute, to Fórum magazine.
Changes in Power
Eyes turn to the composition of the Politburo, as the country’s highest political decision-making body, made up of 25 members – seven belong to the Standing Committee – could be subject to major changes. The most inkling is the succession of the current prime minister, Li Keqiang, who ends his second term and has already publicly confirmed his withdrawal. There is a common, non-binding practice that presupposes the retirement of members over 68 years of age. At this moment, 11 of them have already reached or exceeded this limit; and three are heading there – now 67.
However, at the last Congress, in 2017, the Chinese state news agency Xinhua came to demystify this “rule”, stating that whether to stay – or not – depends “mainly on the political performance of the candidates, on clean governance, on the needs of the charges”.
“We used to look at the terms limits, age limits… but now none of that matters,” said Cheng Li, a political analyst, quoted by the South China Morning Post. “Now the analysis is done following Xi Jinping’s thinking.”
For the Politburo, there are two possible scenarios, according to Sonny Lo. Either stability is chosen, or a “more drastic” reform, in which “younger leaders are prepared to succeed the generation of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang”, as he wrote in an opinion piece in Macau Business.
The political scientist believes that the second scenario is “the most likely”, as it is difficult for an aging political body to run for a second term. This does not favor the “continuity” of the works, and Xi Jinping would pass up the opportunity to mold the next generation to his political ideals. An opinion also defended by Alessando Teixeira, professor of Economics and Public Policy at Tsinghua University, in Beijing.
“China increasingly needs to modernize and go through this process of transformation that Chinese society is going through”, says the Brazilian academic to Fórum magazine.
Reform or Continuity Economy
From the perspective of investors and businessmen, what is most worrying is who will occupy the position of prime minister. For it is who oversees the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce and other government bodies that make many of the crucial decisions that affect banks, insurance companies and companies. The international media have conveyed the possibility that the next Politburo will change the current course, namely in the economic field.
However, Sonny Lo does not believe in this hypothesis: “Continuity and reform go hand in hand. The Chinese economy will continue to face challenges such as the Covid-19 pandemic, among others, but the central government is focused on implementing the dual circulation model”, says PLATAFORMA.
This economic model was released in May 2020 and focuses on domestic demand and innovation to boost the Chinese economy, keeping foreign markets and investors as an engine to support growth.
“Slogan that has provoked considerable skepticism on the part of foreign investors and governments. They are concerned that this policy is a recipe for replacing imports with Chinese-made products,” explains New York Times Beijing Chief of Staff Keith Bradsher.
Cheng Li also does not believe in a change of direction in economic policy: “Whoever becomes prime minister will follow Xi Jinping’s primary needs and his political considerations.” On Xi Jinping’s attempt to perpetuate his power, he says that “a fourth term depends on how the next five years go”. But he doesn’t believe the thesis that he’s planning to stay there forever.
“His plan right now is for ten years”, he predicts. “I think it’s fair that he wants to test his successor, test himself and the political power installed”, he concludes.
Who succeeds Li Keqiang will not be announced until March next year, but Bradsher writes that “the day after the Congress, the members of the new Politburo Standing Committee will walk on a stage in rank order.
The order in which the new leadership presents itself can make it clear who will be the next prime minister”, he concludes. In the absence of certainties, four names appear in the line of succession: Han Zeng (67), Hu Chunhua (59), Wang Yang (67) and Liu He (70). All of them went through the deputy prime minister, a prerequisite for assuming the post. The margin “isn’t big” but “it’s more likely to be one of the first two,” explains Cheng Li, quoted by the Post.
Sonny Lo points to Wang Yang “for his vast experience”. However, if the intention is to inject new blood into the Politburo, then Hu Chunhua emerges as a “strong possibility”. Mostly because he is “younger”, but mainly because of his “government experience in Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Guangdong”.
In addition, Hu rose from the Communist Youth League of China, “a career path he shares with Li Keqiang,” the Macau Business article reads. “It is possible that [Li Keqiang] recommended Hu,” he admits.
Conflict and Covid-19
“People’s Daily mentioned this week that the dynamic zero-case policy is to maintain,” warns Sonny Lo. But he highlights the keyword “dynamic”, meaning that “policy is not static and adapts according to changing circumstances. The Congress will repeat the praise for China’s success in combating Covid-19 and preventing its spread, arguing that the lifting of restrictions is progressing slowly”. In his opinion, only at the beginning of 2023 will there be signs of change at the national level – including Macau.
China’s position on Taiwan “is already very clear”, prioritizing “peaceful reunification” in the context of the “One Country, Two Systems” policy. With regard to the war in Ukraine, Sonny Lo tells PLATAFORMA that the Congress “will not directly mention [the conflict], maintaining the principle of not intervening in the internal affairs of other countries, rather adopting a speech that defend conflict resolution and international peace”.
