Political analysts in the Middle East warn that Israeli operations during Ramadan could lead to a greater humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian enclave, potentially igniting further anger and unrest across the Arab world, thereby exacerbating regional instability.
It is imperative that Israel and Hamas swiftly make concessions to bring an end to the ongoing conflict, they say.
As dawn broke over the rubble-strewn streets of Gaza on Monday morning, Palestinians began their prayers outside makeshift shelters on the first day of the holy month. While several Ramadan decorations, such as lanterns, were seen outside refugee tents, the atmosphere was by no means celebratory.
“I used to spend days preparing for Ramadan, decorating and planning meals,” recalled Amina Al-Ashi, a 44-year-old mother of six in Gaza. But this year, she was in no mood for celebration, fearing for her children’s health amid the scarcity of food and water.
Social order in Gaza is crumbling under the weight of relentless Israeli strikes, crippled public services, and overwhelming humanitarian needs. For many starving Palestinians like Al-Ashi, the ongoing bloodshed and conflict makes it absurd to observe festival traditions.
“I don’t want to see any decorations related to Ramadan,” said Al-Ashi, “because everyone here is dying without any mercy.”
As of Tuesday, the Palestinian death toll from ongoing Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip has climbed to 31,184, with 72,889 more injured, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
Palestinian sources told Xinhua that, on the first day of Ramadan, Israeli warplanes continued to carry out airstrikes in various areas of the Gaza Strip, resulting in numerous casualties.
Negotiations for a ceasefire, facilitated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, reached an impasse ahead of the Ramadan holiday. The proposed agreement, which included the exchange of prisoners and the delivery of humanitarian aid, has yet to see progress.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Monday that Israel will continue the attacks in Gaza until “a total victory” over Hamas.
In a Monday airstrike in the refugee camp of Al-Nuseirat, the Israeli military targeted Marwan Issa, Hamas’ deputy military commander in the Gaza Strip. While Issa reportedly survived the attack, Netanyahu vowed to eliminate all top Hamas leaders.
On Hamas’s side, the rhetoric has not softened either. Hamas argues that any deal should guarantee a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Palestinian political analyst Tayseer Muhaisen suggested that Israel is employing “aggressive tactics” to pressure Hamas into conceding, particularly regarding the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire.
On the other hand, Yonatan Freeman, an expert in international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, noted Hamas’s attempts to leverage international pressure during Ramadan for further concessions from Israel.
Despite the current pause in peace negotiations, Israeli and Palestinian analysts said not all hope was lost on a peace deal during Ramadan.
“There is still a probability for an agreement between Israel and Hamas in the coming days,” said Eyal Pinko, a scholar at Israel’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA Center), voicing confidence that Israel is still willing to explore the possibility of a peace deal as pressure from international community mounts.
Ayman Al-Raqab, professor of Political Science at Al-Quds University, also expressed optimism for “an imminent ceasefire,” citing a widespread desire for peace during Ramadan to prevent further escalation in the Gaza Strip.
However, both analysts acknowledged that achieving any agreement would necessitate “flexibility” from both conflicting parties.
Many fear that the advent of Ramadan could potentially intensify the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, and even stir up broader Middle East unrest.
Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet, has suggested that Israel might launch operations in Rafah, southern Gaza, if hostages aren’t released before Ramadan.
With about 1.5 million Palestinians seeking refuge in Rafah, humanitarian organizations have voiced concern over the possibility of significant casualties.
In the absence of a ceasefire, the persistent death and destruction in Gaza during Ramadan, the Islamic calendar’s holiest period, could profoundly impact Muslims across the region, said Muhaisen.
Israeli attacks during Ramadan, he said, further fuel anger among Arabs, who are already incensed by the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. This heightened anger brings additional pressure on Arab governments to show some action.
Furthermore, as Israeli military operations persist during Ramadan, regional tensions are likely to escalate.
Adel Dashela, a Yemeni political expert, cautioned that the Red Sea crisis could worsen with ongoing hostilities in Gaza.
In recent weeks, the Houthi group has engaged in aggressive actions, including sinking a tanker and inflicting severe damage on a bulk carrier, resulting in the loss of three sailors’ lives.
“The conflict in Gaza is fueling the tensions in the Red Sea,” said Dashela, adding that the Houthi group is “apparently gearing up for more attacks.”
Dashela also noted that clashes between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah continue unabated, adding that “both the Houthi group and Hezbollah are anticipated to escalate their attacks during Ramadan, heightening the peril in the Middle East.”
