Projection is made by the study Breaking the Plastic Wave. However, current data is half the estimate within 20 years.
If urgent measures and environmental and financial impacts are not taken, the volume of plastic on the market will double, the annual volume of product entering the ocean will rise from 11 million tons in 2016 to 29 million tons in 2040, and the quantity in the oceans will quadruple, reaching, in the same period, more than 600 million tons.
The projection was made by the study Breaking the Plastic Wave, published this month by Pew Charitable Trusts and Systemiq and done in partnership by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Oxford University, Leeds and Common University Seas.
The 29 million tons of plastic that may enter the oceans in 2040 will represent 100% of greenhouse gas emissions, involving a scenario without changes in culture or consumer behavior. The net cost of this spill is estimated at US $ 940 billion per year.
In an email interview with Agência Brasil, the leader of the New Plastic Economy initiative, created in 2016 by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Sander Defruyt, explained that the scenario described in the study is a projection of what can happen if the scenario remains as it is. . “It reveals how polluting and wasteful the current system is and reinforces the need for change. The transition to a circular plastic economy could generate annual savings estimated at US $ 200 billion, compared to the current scenario, in addition to the environmental and climate benefits ”.
Prior solution
For the founder of the foundation, Ellen MacArthur, the solution has to be found long before plastic reaches the oceans. She reiterated that a move towards a circular economy, with maximum reduction in the use of plastic, collection and recycling, and replacement of the product whenever possible, would allow, by 2040, the volume entering the oceans to fall to 5 million. tons per year.
The total net cost for the entire system, ranging from raw materials to production and post-use management, would be reduced to $ 740 billion. Considering data from 2016, which indicates a leakage of 11 million tons of plastic in the oceans, the reduction would be 52%. The emission of polluting gases into the atmosphere would decrease to 75% per year.
The circular economy is an economic concept that is part of sustainable development. It is a new way of thinking about the future and how we relate to the planet, decoupling economic growth and human well-being from the growing consumption of new resources.
Out To Sea? The plastic base project, from the Museum for Gestaltung Zürich. The exhibition, using tons of garbage and plastic taken from the oceans, aims to raise people’s awareness of environmental preservation.
Plastic taken from the oceans is shown on display – Marieta Cazarré / Agência Brasil
Measures
The Ellen MacArthur Foundation lists, among the urgent actions to be taken by countries and society, the elimination of unnecessary plastics, “not only removing straws and bags, but also expanding innovative delivery models that take products to customers without packaging or using returnable packaging and setting ambitious goals to reduce the use of virgin plastic ”. The organization estimates that the reduction in use by about 50% by 2040 would be equivalent to zero net growth in the use of plastics for the period.
All plastic items must be designed to be reusable, recyclable or compostable, says the foundation. For her, it is essential to finance the infrastructure in order to increase the collection and circulation capacity of these items, which would require resources of around US $ 30 billion annually. For this reason, it recommends that “mechanisms that improve the economic conditions of recycling and provide stable financing flows with fair contributions from the industry” urgently need to be implemented worldwide, such as extended producer responsibility and other initiatives.
Sander Defruyt said that there is no single solution to the problem of plastic, as shown in the study. “Reducing, reusing and recycling are all elements that need to compose the solution”. He informed that, currently, only 14% of the packages are collected for recycling in the world. “Without fundamental redesign and innovation, around 30% of plastic packaging will never be reused or recycled. So, although recycling is a component of the solution, it is not a solution in itself ”.
Innovation
The search for innovation must be constant in the direction of new business models, product design, materials, technologies and collection systems, in order to accelerate the transition to a circular economy. According to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, “if the plastics and waste management industries stepped up their research and development activities, to reach a level equivalent to that of the machinery industry, for example, this would create an agenda in the sector of US $ 100 billion by 2040 ”, which would mean quadrupling investments in these areas in relation to what currently occurs.
The adoption of these clean or circular economy actions could generate annual savings of US $ 200 billion, with the creation of a net balance of 700,000 additional jobs by 2040 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of around 25 percentage points. , indicates the study. Defruyt added that a robust circular economy approach is needed to eliminate the plastics that are not needed, to innovate so that all those the world needs can be safely reused and circulate all the necessary plastics, keeping them in the economy and outside. of the environment ”.
For Ellen MacArthur, the study confirms that if there is no significant change, by 2050 the oceans may contain more plastics than fish. “To combat waste and pollution, we have to radically intensify efforts and accelerate the transition to a circular economy. We need to eliminate plastics that we don’t need and significantly reduce the use of virgin plastic. We need to innovate to create new materials and reuse models. And we need better infrastructure to ensure that all the plastics we use circulate in the economy and never become waste or pollution.
New economy
The Ellen MacArthur Foundation was created in 2010 and established the circular economy as a priority agenda for leaders around the world. His work focuses on seven areas, which are research and analysis, companies, institutions, governments and cities, systemic initiatives, circular design, learning and communication.
In 2016, the foundation created the New Plastic Economy initiative, which mobilizes governments and companies for a common view on the problem. In October 2018, it launched the Global Commitment, with the mission of eliminating unnecessary or problematic plastic packaging and innovating so that all are 100% reusable, recyclable or compostable and can circulate easily and safely without becoming pollution.
While consumers may try to make better choices in their purchasing decisions, they are still restricted to choosing from a range of alternatives that are made available by the industry, noted Sander Defruyt. He suggested that brands and retailers, in turn, may choose to adopt reuse or single-use models, employing virgin plastics or incorporating recycled content.
End of free distribution of plastic bags by supermarkets, which will be charged, in order to reduce the excess plastic discarded in the environment
End of free distribution of bags by supermarkets, in order to reduce excess plastic discarded in the environment – Fernando Frazão / Agência Brasil
“More than 850 organizations around the world have already committed themselves to this vision of a circular economy for plastics. Through our Global Commitment to a New Plastic Economy, governments, leaders and companies, which together account for 20% of global plastic packaging production, have taken on ambitious and measurable goals to accelerate the transition to a circular plastic economy. In addition, our Plastic Pacts network is bringing together industry players in regional and national initiatives to create circular economy solutions for the sector, ”said Defruyt.
Engagement
Companies such as Amcor, Coca-Cola Company, Danone, L’Oréal, Nestlé, PepsiCo, Unilever, Walmart are partners in the action, which also includes the signatories of the governments of France and Chile, among others, the São Paulo City Hall Paulo and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as WWF. The book Reuse, published by the foundation last year, shows that replacing 20% of single-use packaging with reusable packaging represents, globally, an economic opportunity equivalent to at least $ 10 billion.
The leader of the New Plastics Economy reported that, over the past few years, relevant advances have been observed by some of the main representatives of the global product industry in relation to their commitments. Coca-Cola, for example, is applying reuse models in 27% of its turnover in Latin America, and Danone today uses these models in 50% of its water business.
Nestlé invested US $ 2 billion to encourage the market to supply recycled plastics of good quality, which can be used to pack food products. Several brands, retailers and plastic packaging manufacturers are eliminating single-use packaging formats, such as straws and bags, from the portfolio.
“We also noticed a change in attitude towards extended producer responsibility schemes, which were previously seen as a cost to be avoided. Today, companies already recognize the need to invest in materials recovery systems in order to achieve the industry’s goals, ”said Defruyt.
Ranking
Although there is no ranking of countries or regions in relation to actions to create a circular plastic economy, Dreuyt said that a number of governments that have already made public commitments to accelerate the transition to a circular economy can be identified and thereby establish a vision to guide the industry’s efforts.
Signatories to the Global Commitment include national governments on five continents (including Chile, France, Grenada, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the Seychelles), as well as leading cities such as Austin, Copenhagen, Buenos Aires and, in Brazil, São Paulo. The Plastic Pact network already has initiatives established in the United Kingdom, France, the hile, the Netherlands, South Africa and Portugal today, in addition to a regional pact in Europe.
