Wait and see. That’s where we are now, as the Government prepares the Policy Address which, hopefully, will respect the promises of investment and the reversal of gaming dependence; but also align with the main guidelines of the upcoming Chinese Five-Year Plan. Little or nothing is known yet, but there are two or three obvious facts that cannot be ignored: first, economic diversification is moving backward; in other words, since there is neither progress nor resolution, time and opportunity for growth are being lost — the economy has never been so dependent on gaming, not even during the golden age of the casinos. Then, there isn’t even a surplus on the horizon, let alone the capacity to sustain the necessary investments — not only in Hengqin’s development but also in the Macao Peninsula and Taipa. Finally, the national economy is also going through difficult times, and it remains uncertain whether Beijing will have the capacity to implement a five-year plan that injects enough capital for economic recovery across the entire country, including the special regions — which, in truth, are already considered rich and privileged. Locally, much creativity, ambition, and competence are needed — qualities that are not exactly abundant here. These are not golden times indeed.
This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Joel Mokyr, for identifying the necessary factors for sustained technological progress; and to Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, for their theory of growth based on creative destruction. Mokyr compiled a scientific explanation for the success of innovation, emphasizing the importance of societies remaining open to change and new ideas. Aghion and Howitt built the mathematical model of so-called creative destruction, referring to the phenomenon in which, when a new and better product enters the market, companies selling the old product suffer losses. In essence, they demonstrate that this creative destruction generates conflicts that must be managed constructively; otherwise, established companies and interest groups will block innovation to avoid harm. This helps explain why, in Macao, everyone claims to support a different future… while doing everything possible to keep things exactly the same. Even a government that possesses authority, vision, and a plan must have the political flexibility to push forward innovation — providing parachutes that both encourage those who move ahead and protect those who fall into the abyss. But are there conditions for all this? It’s hard to see how, or with whom; at least not at the level that seems necessary, and certainly not given the prevailing conservative mindset and the limitations of the local elite. These are, in truth, foggy times.
A great deal would need to change, in a short period: the awareness that change is truly necessary; the authority to impose it; investment capital, both national and foreign; know-how, Chinese and international; courage; ambition; and above all… a great deal of innovation. There are no miracles on the horizon, but if at least the first steps are taken, however small they may seem, the first bricks of the wall can be broken. This is truly a time of change all over the world; therefore, in Macao, the long-awaited new cycle — recently announced — cannot afford to wait. Otherwise, at the speed things move today, it risks becoming old before it ever becomes new. These are indeed dangerous times.
*General Director of Plataforma
