Gross gaming revenue during the Golden Week holidays reached about MOP 5.1 billion — around MOP 1.02 billion per day — representing a 12% year-on-year increase in daily figures, surpassing expectations, according to investment bank JP Morgan. However, HSBC estimated that in the six days following Golden Week, average daily revenue fell by 44% — to MOP 575 million per day — marking a 1% year-on-year decline.
Professor Zeng Zhonglu, former director of the Centre for Gaming and Tourism Studies at the Macao Polytechnic University, believes the gaming market appears to have hit “rock bottom,” with the sector’s recovery progressing “very slowly.” “From what I understand, the economy in mainland China stabilized in the first quarter. Therefore, I believe there is room for gross gaming revenue to improve, though only marginally,” he told PLATAFORMA.
HSBC, for example, forecasts that May could show a year-on-year gross gaming revenue growth of “0 to 5 percent,” noting that “recent measures announced by China and the US ease tariff tensions and may help improve consumer sentiment to some extent.” However, this projected growth for May is only expected to reach MOP 22 billion — just around 85% of the MOP 25.9 billion recorded in 2019.
Low Ceiling in a Stable Marketpl
David Rittvo, Director of Asian Development at consulting and research group The Innovation Group, believes that overall, “May is meeting expectations,” which eases concerns about the post-Golden Week slump: “Demand drops after major events or weekends are quite common and occur both in Macau and in Las Vegas and other markets,” he told PLATAFORMA.
However, when asked when Macau might return to pre-pandemic levels, the answer becomes less straightforward: “That’s a hard question to answer, because demand segments have changed due to policy shifts. Before COVID-19, there was a VIP market sustained by junkets (gaming promoters). That market no longer exists, and the current market segments are more stable, but may have a generally lower ceiling.”
Ben Lee, managing partner at IGamiX Management Consulting, considers May to have been another “relatively weak month or one with only slight year-on-year variation,” attributing this to the slowdown in China’s economy and a tighter “crackdown on illegal money exchange.”
At the end of last year, authorities approved a new law criminalizing illegal money exchanges, with prison sentences of up to five years — a measure analysts believe also contributed to lower betting volumes in gaming rooms.
“There’s still some money being exchanged illegally, but in a very subtle and discreet manner. The lack of funds available through this channel is obviously a factor \[in reduced betting],” Lee concluded.
