The effects of the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil and worldwide affect mainly the health of populations, but there are still economic impacts whose dimensions are unknown. It is necessary to debate what paths to take to alleviate the consequences and try to accelerate a resumption, which will not be easy. To talk about it,
For José Roberto, the crisis, although it is a health one, is immediately leading to a recession due to a sudden stop of activities that move the wheel of the economy. “It was what happened [in the crisis of] 2008, but this time there is nothing to be done in the short term. In this sense, this is the worst of all threats”, he defined.
The economist points out that the most difficult part will be to resume investments in the country. “Civil construction was recovering after painful years, taking shape again and, abruptly, all furniture launches were postponed for at least two months. investment part will suffer more. “
Alexandre Schwartsman considers that the measures of the federal government for the setback, such as, for example, R $ 40 billion – in two months – to cover the salary of the worker of small and medium companies, can help, but there is much more to do.
“For the issue of payroll, it came in the right size”, he evaluated. “But you have to remember that a company’s expenses go beyond paying salaries. It has rent, energy, suppliers; companies will need more help”.
One of the proposals pointed out by the economist is to lift the Central Bank’s ban on providing credit only to the banking sector. “You have to make this credit reach the top, providing working capital, and ensuring that these companies survive as long as possible. Later on, we will see the disappearance of these companies, mainly in the services sector”, he evaluates.
For Schwartsman, the sector with the greatest chance of recovery is agribusiness. “It is an activity that does not have crowds of people, the revenue is in hard currency and the growth of the dollar helps the sector.”
The economist also evaluated the R $ 600 voucher for informal workers, which was approved by the Chamber and the Senate and must be sanctioned by the federal government. “For the formal worker, there is still a safety net, such as unemployment insurance, which helps to hold the bills a little, but for the informal worker, it is necessary to create a special safety net. The amount of R $ 600 per head it doesn’t solve everything. The informal worker took, on average, R $ 1.5 thousand per month. What he cannot do is let these people go hungry. This is unacceptable “, he added.
Government measures
Another important pillar, when the crisis passes, is to deliver faster the reforms that are in the congressional appreciation line, such as tax and administrative reform. “Reforms do not solve the case of Covid-19, they do not create a respirator, but ahead, when we have a much greater debt, they will be much more important than they were before the coronavirus”, points out the economist.
Another point raised by Alexandre are stricter expenditure containment measures, for example, which could be appreciated when the pandemic passes.
“Without this, we can have the return of old problems, such as inflation. This is not on the horizon now, but looking at a scenario in which debt cannot be dealt with, in which it is no longer possible to sustain the interest rate. , then we will have a serious inflation problem in a few years “, he warned.
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