Home Headline Migration of millions of people in the coming decades is “inevitable”

Migration of millions of people in the coming decades is “inevitable”

The migration of millions of people from regions of the world that climate change will make almost uninhabitable in the coming decades is “inevitable”, warns the writer Gaia Vince, who regrets the absence of this topic at the COP27 climate summit.

In the opinion of this British scientific researcher, the issue of climate migration should be addressed in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, at the 27th United Nations conference on climate change (COP27), which will take place between 6 and 18 November, because it is “unlikely” to be able to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

“People will have to move, that is inevitable. We are already seeing a large number of people fleeing desperate situations from Sudan to Latin America and Asia,” she said, in an interview with Agência Lusa.

In the coming decades, she anticipates, “tens of millions of people or hundreds of millions of people” will have to migrate, a premise that dominates the book she recently published, “Nomad Century”, which can be translated as “nomad century”.

Specialist in environmental issues, Gaia Vince won the prize for the best scientific book awarded by the British Academy of Sciences Royal Society in 2015 with the work “Adventures in the Anthropocene”.

The book was the product of a long journey around the world after quitting her job as editor of the magazine ‘Nature’ to see with her own eyes the impact of climate change and what various people were doing to try to stop its consequences. .

The new work arose from “frustration” with the impasse on issues such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation policies and also with the realization that global warming will continue.

Gaia Vince points to mass migration as a solution, not a problem, calling for the international community to reach an understanding.

“This [migrations] can end in conflict and many deaths. We could manage this in a way that leads to productive and healthy societies rather than constant conflict,” she argues.

In the book, she mentions how there are regions, especially in the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where it will be almost impossible to live due to rising temperatures, rising sea levels and other extreme events, such as droughts, floods and fires.

To survive, millions of people will have to look for areas with better conditions and Gaia Vince suggests that a supranational authority be created to manage migratory flows and monitor the creation of new cities in milder parts of the world.

According to the author, assuming a global warming of four degrees celsius (ºC) around 2100, a value based on some scientific estimates, some of these new population clusters could stay in hitherto inhospitable places, such as Siberia, Greenland and eventually even Antarctica, as well as parts of northern Europe, Canada and Russia.

The idea is “radical”, she acknowledges, and will have to overcome issues such as secular geopolitical boundaries and prejudices such as racism, but insists the problem must be discussed proactively in a “pragmatic” way.

In the scenario of a global warming of 4ºC by 2010, the African continent, including Angola and Mozambique, would become desertified or uninhabitable, as well as southern Europe, which includes Portugal or Spain.

“Portugal is already being affected by these problems, such as fires and drought. The difference with Sudan is that Portugal is richer, is a democracy, has good governance and is part of the European Union, so people can move around easily”, the author told Lusa.

But the country will have to change a lot in the coming years, she warns, namely adapting the type of architecture, increasing water reservoirs, building desalination plants and changing the type of agricultural crops.

In economic terms, Portugal will be affected by a growing trend of looking for less hot places for tourism, retirement or second homes, and future generations may be more attracted to employment opportunities in more northern geographies.

“People don’t want to spend the summer in a horrendous heat wave because they can’t go out and have to stay at home with the air conditioning. This is not pleasant. Instead, they’ll want to switch to something more pleasant, like Lakes in Finland. It is a change that will take place over the next two decades”, predicts Gaia Vince.

Policy makers, experts, academics and non-governmental organizations meet between November 6th and 18th in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt at COP27, to try to stop global warming.

Leaders such as the President of the United States, Joe Biden, have already confirmed that they will be present, with the Portuguese Government being represented by Prime Minister António Costa.

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